The Apples of their eyes

It’s official… figures released late last week indicate that China’s birth-rate is in decline.  Last year 14.65 million babies were born, 58,000 fewer than the previous year.  It’s the lowest level since the birth of the Republic itself.  Why is this and what are some of the implications for the world’s biggest market?

First the why… It appears that there’s been something of a triple whammy on birth-rates.   The cohort of women of childbearing age has been declining.  On top of that, there’s a marked gender imbalance among this age cohort. And perhaps most importantly, urbanisation and ensuing growth in prosperity have proved (as they do everywhere) a most effective contraceptive.  

All this points to a declining population in the long term.  But the short term implication that interests demographers and economists concerns what they call dependency ratios: how many of working age are there to support those of non-working age?  And a specific ratio – the potential support ratio – describes specifically the number of working age people per elderly person.

China’s working age population peaked in 2012 and has been dropping relentlessly, by a percentage point each year. Which gives China a potential support ratio of about 6.  This isn’t especially low by global standards.  Elderly individuals in much of Western Europe can rely on the economic output of only 3 or 4 working agers for support, and in Japan it’s closer  to 2. 

But the shift is hugely  significant in China where tradition still dictates that sons and daughters must support their parents.  For young adults born into prosperous urban environments, with a far greater sense of agency over their own futures than their parents ever had, this makes for growing inter-generational tension.  Couples feel the strain of supporting two sets of parents, and perhaps grandparents too.  Some elders try to impose their traditional values on the young, invoking rules of filiality that brook no challenge.  Other greys fret about becoming a burden on their own children.

This theme of inter-generational tension is neatly dealt with in a recent film for Apple to support their iPhone 11 Pro.  It’s a class act, with the lead role affectingly played by megastar Zhou Xun.  Where many brand films disappoint, with their schmaltzy piano arpeggios instructing the viewer where to cry, this one does something rather more profound.  It brings alive the tensions without pulling its punches, finds a resolution (involving tasty food – always a reliable metaphor for family love in China) and, in the process, brings out Chongqing’s inner beauty with stunning visual craft.

Oh and it puts the product centre stage. (It’s filmed using the iPhone 11 Pro.)

The idea of situating your brand story in a relevant cultural tension is not a new one.  But it’s not every day you see it done  so well.